Archive for April, 2009

Twitter’s simplicity (and complexity)

Wednesday, April 29th, 2009

Bigger is not better.  Simple is better.  And then of course, better is better.

Rob Diana on the Regular Geek expounds on these statements.  He uses Twitter’s explosive popularity as an example, calling his post “Simple is the new black”.

But the other buzz that’s been going around the blogosphere is user loyalty or “retention”.  Apparently, Twitter’s retention rates are abysmal.  This means that, while it’s easy to try out, not many people are finding ongoing value in the service.

My strong belief is that the folks who try it once or twice are simply not seeing the real value of the service.  But that may well be Twitter’s fault.  Sure it’s easy to answer the question “What are you doing?”.  But the minutiae of everyday life (your mundane doings) are not really what long term users of Twitter want to know about — although that may not be so true for the celebrities who are now joining. Some star-gazers might think it cool to see Oprah Winfrey or Ashton Kutcher tweet: “Eating a bagel. Poppy seed stuck in teeth.”

The real value of Twitter, apart from its simplicity, is the new and interesting information it can quickly convey.  The “tweet” stream you get from Twitter is like a radio station of good stuff (because you pick who you want to listen to and you can dump the uninteresting people easily).  It’s an endless barrage of short (140 character maximum) microblogged items.  But it is also searchable, so you can “rewind” this radio station and find topics you’re specifically interested in.

For more views on what Twitter is all about, check out these blog posts:

Fencing off the cowpath

Monday, April 27th, 2009

In today’s Rebooting the News podcast, Dave Winer talked about “paving the cowpath”.

This is a quote we used frequently around IBM.  It essentially means that you take an existing process or technology and improve upon it. You often start with manual processes and automate them, then improve the automation. You iterate until you end up with something pretty cool and sophisticated.

The problem, as we’ve seen before, is that user feedback and empirical study of any existing “thing” usually gives you only incremental improvement.  Revolutionary change often happens when you jump onto a whole new path heading in the same general direction.

ComplexityBut there is another influence at work that Winer also mentions: people who have a stake in the complexity of a certain “status quo”.  This is what could be referred to as “fencing off the cowpath”.  Pave it all you want, but you’re still on the same path because that’s where “they” want you to stay.  “They” are the consultants, programmers, and industries that make a living from “enabling” the average person to use a technology.  Winer talked about Jon Postel‘s brilliant contributions to the early Internet; brilliant because they were simple.  Postel believed that you should never invent a new protocol if you can build off an old one in a simple way.  Winer mentions SOAP and I laughed to hear an industry pundit say what I’ve been saying for years: Simple Object Access Protocol is anything but simple.  (I usually say that in the same breath as I talk about the simplicity of a RESTful approach — but I am fully aware that there is a segment of the industry doing what they can to “complexify” that too.)

What was really cool in the podcast was hearing Winer and Rosen agree that when a real solution for “the new journalism” is found, its success will be based on its simplicity.  After all, as Rosen points out, simplicity allows for more participation.  And that’s got to be a win.

Publishing: Micro and Traditional

Thursday, April 23rd, 2009

There has been some buzz about the New York Times leading the vanguard to change things in the newspaper industry by buying Twitter.  Even the original proposer of the idea, Umair Haque, acknowledges that it is not feasible, because the Times lacks the sufficient cash.  But even as a concept, I am not Twitter's Fail Whale on concretesure what this kind of acquisition would accomplish for any newspaper.

Responses to this idea include the thought that the Times should use open source Laconica to come up with their own microblogging platform as an alternative to actually buying Twitter. Anything is possible, but Twitter is undeniably the place where people have congregated and setting up a parallel universe would offer different benefits from the ones that Twitter offers today — and would lack the critical mass you’d get with Twitter.

I’d like to respond to each point Umair proposes in his post:

  1. Viral distribution: “Newspapers are making the same mistake [as the music business fighting filesharing] — and acquiring Twitter would turn the tables.” Microblogging — not necessarily Twitter itself — is indeed an excellent way to get a timely message out there.  But you can’t compare filesharing’s effect on the music industry to microblogging.  News is ephemeral.  Music is not.  And, if — big if — music pirates are killing an industry whose content offers “replay value”, I am extremely skeptical that the news industry would fair any better (buying Twitter would be like trying to put a cork in a bursting dam).  No tables would turn.
  2. Context: “[The] context on Twitter could help the NYT rebuild detailed information about people, products, services, and news.” I think the interaction of the users creates the context.  This means that the success of Twitter is more about the specific community it has spawned than the technology itself.  Other microblogging platforms are emerging that may be better for enabling context, but Twitter remains the king as long as its community remains so vibrant.  My concern here is that if the Times acquires it, the community would be more skeptical about participating.  Single-point-of-failure concerns about Twitter would be amplified by single-point-of-corporate-control… and ultimately “failure” in a much wider sense.
  3. Relational capital: “Use the knowledge on Twitter as a way to let companies build real, meaningful relationships with people.” Now this I have to agree wholeheartedly with.  I believe this is the real power of microblogging.  However, you don’t need to buy Twitter to leverage its power, and — perhaps more importantly — Twitter is not the only way to arrive at such knowledge.
  4. Business model experimentation: “The NYT could experiment with literally hundreds [of business models] — like I say: business models happen.”  Right on.  This is the idea of action creating clarity.  Just do it and refine your ideas as you go.  I have a caveat once again though: If anyone buys Twitter and tries to start charging for any aspect of it, that attempt alone will change its nature.  I think it would probably be better to experiment first and make an acquisition later.

I personally like the idea of a universal platform onto which everyone can publish and to which everyone can subscribe.  A Ph.D student named Daniel Sandler at Rice University has proposed just such a thing.  It provides all the power of microblogging for everyone but runs on a ubiquitous platform like “the Internet” upon which people can build communities, context, and business models.

Probate of the Fourth Estate

Monday, April 20th, 2009

More and more, media commentary includes the phrase “the downfall of journalism”.  I find that fascinating — and slightly unsettling.  Sure, we are clearly in a transitionary phase from traditional media to digital media.

Journalism today is not where it is because of the dire straits that newspapers find themselves in (although it is admittedly another chicken and egg argument).  Technology has certainly precipitated big change.  But many of the modern thinkers acknowledge that newspapers had been suffering from estrangement from their readers for years. I firmly believe that journalism will not die.  On the other hand, journalism will undergo its own changes, some directly related to technology, but most related to new approaches spawned by the digital age.

Community has always been a feature of a good newspaper.  Journalists who knew their community, who had an “inside track” on a story as it broke, were the most successful.  But, as Jay Rosen points out, communities can form on the “margins” of the known group.  In other words, on the Web there is no well-defined geographic boundary, nor even a demographic or interest-bounded group.  Communities will rise up, be served by writers and thinkers (the journalists of the future), and eventually disappear.

In the same podcast, Dave Winer talks about how user interface design rules were tossed out when the Web was born.  They have since been re-established and in some ways reinvented.  He itemizes almost a dozen platform revolutions like that.  I believe the analogy he makes is utterly appropriate: ten or eleven platform revolutions versus one or two revolutions for journalists.  He says: “Journalism must keep its own downfall in perspective.”  Although I take issue with calling it a downfall, I have to applaud Winer’s admonishment.  Things do change, so roll with it.

My favorite comment about all this is still from Clay Shirky. We are definitely going through a transition and it is very difficult to know where we will end up.  I am stating emphatically that no matter how it all turns out, we will still have journalists: people who investigate, research, think, and write.  We have bloggers today, but just as journalists (as we currently define them) will need to get more “interactive” and latch on to digital sharing, bloggers will probably have to learn to do more “legwork”.  The future end result, hitting the sweet spot for some sort of sustainable institution, I would still call journalism.  I might even still call it the Fourth Estate.

What’s with Internet Explorer?

Friday, April 17th, 2009

Any good Web designer will test with multiple browsers before deploying.  I started putting together a very simple web page and began testing as I went.  I am shocked at how badly Microsoft Internet Explorer fails to interpret rudimentary standard XHTML and CSS.  Maybe you don’t hear a hue and cry because people make a great living customizing Web sites so they comply with the non-standard way Internet Explorer works.  Safari, Firefox, and Google Chrome seem to be able to interpret things in a common way and actually function according to the W3 descriptions of what to expect.  I will admit that Opera screwed up one horizontal line (<hr> tag), so I left it out of the following visual comparison:

Browser Comparison

Expect what you inspect

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

Lou Gerstner, former chief of RJR Nabisco and then IBM, once said famously “People do what you inspect, not what you expect.”  By that he meant that whatever you’re emphasizing in your business by measuring it — that will be the area that improves.  This is a no-brainer in some ways, but the implications are more far-reaching than a passing glance reveals.

Pick ThreeIf you measure speed to market, you will get your products there faster.  If you measure quality, you will have a better product.  If you measure costs, you will have a cheaper product.  (We can lump services in with products just as easily on these points.)  Often these improvements will be made by well-meaning employees motivated by some sort of incentive (like a performance appraisal) that is tied to the metrics your business has put in place.  But just as often they will come at the expense of other aspects of your business.  Perhaps you’ll get better quality products that take longer to get to market.  Or cheaper products that lack quality.

In the old days, the points of cost, speed, and quality were plotted on a triangle that always retained the same area.  This implied that you could pick two out of three: improvement in one area always came at the expense of at least one other area.  Those days are gone.  Peter Sheahan, a young wunderkind in management consulting from Australia, says: “Good. Fast. Cheap.  Pick three and then add something extra.”

Project managers often want to demonstrate the value of the project.  They will take a baseline and then, during the project and as part of the closing, record the same metric over time.  They can show the (hopefully) positive difference their project makes.  But it is important to choose the metrics carefully.  At the very least, it is advisable to measure opposing things: demonstrating speed to market while showing that your quality and costs remained constant would be a much more compelling metric that speed alone.  But other managers have turned to more holistic and somewhat subjective measurements to demonstrate their project’s positive impact: things like stakeholder satisfaction.

Metrics are important.  But they sometimes drive unexpected behaviors.  While business endeavors will rarely travel an easy road, it is a smoother journey if you remember to expect what you inspect — and inspect the right things.

Comfort in media

Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

There’s something that people find comforting and convenient about a newspaper.  It is portable.  It is easy to see in many different light conditions.

I believe that the Kindle is starting to address some of these features and that eventually newsprint will truly be phased out.  I was recently talking with people who find comfortNewspaper and a Kindle in the newspaper.  Booting up a computer or even carrying around an electronic device like a Kindle is too inconvenient for them.  Recycling the newspaper when they are finished with it is another key requirement.  So I painted a picture of the future for them: thin, flexible sheets that were electronically and wirelessly updated every day, could access and display the same amount of content as today’s bulky weekend paper, and could be read in all light conditions.  Also part of the appeal: jotting notes in the margins and doing the crossword, using a standard stylus or a retracted ballpoint pen.  Losing the sheet would not be terrible because it will be so cost effective, yet there would be far less going to landfill or the recycling center because it would refresh itself every day.

The technology is in its infancy, but this is not some far-fetched sci-fi scenario.  Almost all of what I described is possible today.  How many newspapers are embracing it, funding more research to perfect it, and betting their futures on it?  I haven’t heard of one.

Use the right brain to succeed

Sunday, April 5th, 2009

Lately I’ve been innundated with ideas about how to survive and thrive in the “tough times” we’re currently experiencing.

Key among them: determine areas of the economy that are not only counter-cyclical, but have the potential to grow exponentially for the next twenty years or so. Demographics are used to determine long term trends like this, because technology watchers have difficulty projecting beyond five years. General trends are predicated on: the aging population in North America, growing populations and economies in “developing nations”, and the combination of higher standards of living, abundance, and technological advancements.

Economists cite several results — however stereotypical they may be — of these demographic changes. Older people seek meaning as opposed to adding wealth.  Technical jobs traditionally done in North America can be done cheaper overseas.  Abundance in our society leaves us wanting very little in physical “stuff”, and again we search for more meaning and purpose out of life.  Technological advancements, while sometimes intrusive, have generally made our lives easier, and again we are left with time on our hands to ponder our existence — its true meaning and purpose.Right and Left Brain

Daniel Pink, in his book A Whole New Mind, calls the key trends “Abundance, Asia, and Automation”.  He asserts that the result of these demographic and economic pressures will be a “high concept, high touch” marketplace in North America.  Thriving in such a world will require more right brain thinking and behavior. Left brain contributions will remain important, but will no longer be sufficient.  His arguments are pretty convincing.

While describing how these new imperatives require right brain thinking, Pink points out that several multi-millionaires are dyslexic and some, like Richard Branson, directly attribute their success to their dyslexia.  The left brain is responsible for linear processing.  Math and science demand the powers of the left brain.  But dyslexics often have that linear and sequential comprehension disrupted.  Pink asserts that to compensate, dyslexics like Branson develop far stronger right brain acuities like synthesis and big-picture thinking.

Project managers are being taught about “strategic project management” or even “program management”.  Doctors are being taught “narrative medicine”.  Computer programmers are learning that user stories and iterative feedback from stakeholders drive higher quality into their code.  All of these are examples of greater right brain influence — the “emotional” or holistic side of the equation.

Slashdot recently had a piece called Coders, Your Days are Numbered. It emphasizes what Agile methodology and project management advocates have already been saying for years: strong communication skills are necessary for success in software development.  Good grammar and spelling are not enough either — the ability to synthesize, influence, and lead teams is also essential.  These are all enabled by the right side of the brain.